Vendors Taking “Custom” Out of CEDIA Expo

Jason:

View and interpret this as an Omen or Harbinger of things to come.  Cedia’s days and the “service providers” amongst their ranks are number in months not years…  Cedia will go the way of the “Tradetech or Rich/Reuters Video Switches” on Wall street in the 90’s” which where all replaced by digital marketing data feeds and SUN/Windows Desktop PC’s.  To take this analogy one step further (again drawing on the Wall Street Technology example), the same happened to Telcom (PBX’s), Closed market data systems/applications (ala Bloomberg), analog SQUAWK boxes and guys/dolls in the “Pits” trading pieces of paper. 

The NEW digital paradigm will be to VoIP (in home PC based “PBX);  digital feeds for content over the internet (Movies, Trailers, Prime Time shows, Sports on IPTV) and Audio streams/Music Libraries; Interactive Applications and Services like Multimedia (like Silverlight) and Two-Way control; Finally NO MORE DAMN DVD’s (The equivalent of paper trade tickets, which should ONLY be used for archiving, backup and off site record keeping).  But the ultimate obsolescence of CEDIA is its body of SERVICE RESOURCES (aka its “members”).  Meaning Cedia resources are like RPG or COBOL programmers.  They failed to mature with the advances in digital convergence, and lack the competencies and capacities to make the transition.  This is not meant as a slight, it is just a reasonable and fair assessment.  It happens all the time in the IT world.  It simply a fact and facet of Organizational Change Management and in this case the industry/vendors/service providers have failed to align themselves with the paradigm shift and now it has simply become a big, bureaucratic, political blocking organization desperately holding on for control and survival.  The most innovation to come out of this corpus of blockers today is FUD, obfuscation, spin and rebate black magic…

The same thing happened in Telcom and Mid Range computing in the late 1990’s and 2000’s.  Both the technology and services providers failed to make the transition and they all just went out of business or are in their death throes gasping for a new air supply.  Just look at Lucent, Nortel, DEC, Data General and others, and that does not include the SOFTWARE that ran on those systems.  You will be hard pressed to find a regional VAR to service your legacy SMS&B;PBX or Mid Range Computer as all those providers have gone away.  Same will happen to legacy, non PC centric CEDIA service providers.  So there is the HISTORICAL PARALLEL or precedent. 

In the modern age of DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT AND AUTOMATION based upon a distributed PC technology infrastructure (Linux, Windows or Apple OS) there is no longer a place or a need for Old School A/V pundits and cable jockeys (Again, back to the RICH/REUTERS/TRADETECH example).  The new warriors and heroes of this paradigm shift will be PC developers, IT Infrastructure specialist and Content and Service Brokers who first build out the digital infrastructure, next program the SOLTUTION and USAGE scenarios and finally who add continuing (annuity) value through content and application services.  The bulk of the existing Cedia members lack these competencies and have business models, resources, cost structures, overhead and legacy support issues that will never allow them to make the transition into the PC Centric, Digital arena where the ecosystem demands and more importantly expectations and requirements of the consumer have been set by what you can do with a laptop PC at the price point on $4000.00.  Show me a 400% margin, luxury laptop that has main stream luxury market adoption and I will eat it for you live from a HD stream off my $1500 clone PC running Windows Home Server over the internet . 

The future of “Custom Home” entertainment and automation is more FUNCTIONAL (programming) vs PHYSICAL (cables) and features and functions are more like “off the shelf” accounting packages vs. custom coded applications.  Feature/function/Service expectations of the consumer is being set by cheap PC’s.  The peripherals are becoming off the shelf and an economy of scale is driving the prices way, way down.  So net net, we do not need highly customized, build from scratch PHYSICAL solutions.  We need best of breed, off the shelf, open PC based LOGICAL solutions which connect to peripherals as easy as plugging in a mouse, discovering a Bluetooth headset for you cell phone or connecting to a wireless router in an airport lobby.  Finally, back to the “Harbinger of the future”.  Cedia is like an AS/400 mid range computer, or better yet an IBM Mainframe.  It’s support staff (service providers) are a bunch of RPG and Cobol programmers who cannot or will not make the transition (costs, competencies, politics or personal preferences, read that hubris).  So there ya go.  My rant on what’s going on.  The “TTL” (ah that is “Time to Live”) for Cedia is set and within months not years, it will be tombstoned.  So here is my epithet for ya “Here lies Cedia, it was a grand old Rack of stuff, wires, tubes, and analog path panels in its time, but its time has passed”  I think that a fitting tombstone would be a sculpture of a PC, maybe even the original Apple Macintosh plus (First with an internal HDD) circe 1984 

I’m always skeptical of someone with a “radical” view of the future particularly one where widespread changes in the status quo are imminent within very short timeframes.
You generally find these people have their own agenda or interest at heart and are dutifully trying their best to convince the rest of us that “their future” is our future too.
Rarely is this the case but such people who exhort this type of rhetoric seem to be much more prevalent in recent years:  The terrorists are apparently going shopping on Main St, global warming is going to melt all my cocktail ice and our children are all going to turn out like Britney.
Ray Casey, you are such a person. You make some good points, mix it with a few trade buzz-words, throw in a dodgy metaphor or two and you think you’ve created an argument. Not so Ray, not so by a long chalk matey.
Let’s start with CEDIA and its service provider cadre who are apparently in danger of some impending doom.  Poppycock! A couple of syllables should be all that is required in answer to your statement but as I suspect that you are a man in need of further persuasion I shall expound…
You believe erroneously that CEDIA is made up of people who sell outdated technologies because they lack the intelligence to provide IP or computer based wonder machines that will simply do-it-all out of the box. The lack of smarts on their part will therefore bring about the demise of said businesses in an ever-changing world and consequently CEDIA too shall expire or at least cease to be significant.
In my personal experience as a CEDIA member and “service provider,” and in my conversations with peers, the truth is quite the opposite.  It is not in the average CEDIA member that the intelligence is lacking, it is the manufacturers of the PC based products that continually fail to provide one thing – a RELIABLE product. In some cases, give them their due, the systems can be reliable but it is not the norm if you care to speak to the many that have been burned by these systems.  The media center/lifeware crowd is not the answer.
Not yet.
Will their day come? Undoubtedly so. Is it in months rather than years? It could be but I’ll put my bet on the discovery of Bigfoot, you put yours on months and we’ll see who ends up better off.
You mention “discovering a Bluetooth headset for your cell phone or connecting to a wireless router in an airport lobby” as though these are the epitome of simple tasks yet the vast number of people I would wager still wouldn’t know how to do this today. These ARE simple tasks but the very companies you believe are the harbingers of change are the very companies responsible for making these tasks more complex than they need be and if an all-digital world is your vision of the future HDMI is not exactly off to a great start on that front.
One thing you fail to realize in your “fair assessment” is that CEDIA is made up of many small - most VERY small - businesses. These are not giants beleaguered by massive overhead or slow-to-adapt business processes. These are nimble companies with smart people who will adjust.
Not all will survive. The death of 80% of all small businesses in the first five years is all but guaranteed, it’s a national statistic. Hey, running a small business ain’t easy.  But there will always be others waiting to fill those vacated premises, who see a niche, who shall profit where others have failed and who in turn shall become CEDIA members themselves. CEDIA will do just fine.
But, Ray, what really assures me that you know very little of the CI world is that you talk about control and content as though that were all we do as custom installers? 
What are you going to watch all your content on? How are you going to listen to it? Will you download speakers?
I install and design custom home theaters. How they are controlled and the content they play will undoubtedly evolve to the point that many of our current remotes and sources will cease to exist. But make no mistake the theater itself shall not cease to exist. I shall still install projectors that cost more than your car, provide acoustic treatments to tame down that annoying room mode and supply speakers and amplifiers that bring tears to the eyes of the owner when playing their favorite aria.
I shall close with a parting thought for both your argument and a nod to the original article. Your symbol of CEDIA’s demise and their tombstone, the Apple Macintosh, was the progenitor of the ultimate product marketed directly to the end user. The iPod has everything you need right there in the box, no custom required. It has proprietary connectors, a closed architecture and zero margin. For custom integrators it sucks! Yet it spawned one of the biggest surges in the custom installation industry to date.  iPod’s, and the audio distribution systems they are played over, are responsible for many, many millions in CEDIA member company’s revenues.
Terence Mulholland
CEO of Beyond Home Theater

As much as I would like that to be true, given that I’m one of those heroic programmers, and our company is involved in moving the automation world to a PC based platform, it’s not going to be quite that easy. Sure at a simple level of automation, that may happen, though even that will be a ways out. Any significant level of system complexity is just not going to happen any time soon.

The only way it would probably have any chance is if some big end user oriented company provided a complete, proprietary solution. They could have done this for years now, but no one has. Most likely the reason is that they realize that most folks have trouble setting the VCR clock, so even a fairly straightforward automation solution would be more than they care to take on.

I do certainly believe that IT infrastructure type people will likely be in the forefront of bringing about the move to a PC based world. They are the most comfortable with the tools required, and are already putting in place the backbone which such an automation system would leverage. And PC based platforms integrate completely with the home network.

But there’s still all those sensors and switches (how many wires do I need to in the box to hook up a three way switch?) and cables and speakers and so forth. No software is going to make that any easier.

We won’t have a PC based world until PCs don’t crash.  Ever.

How often does your refrigerator, light switch, vacuum cleaner, even most televisions, telephone systems and home theaters crash?  Stop working for no discernible reason, displaying a message that is of no help?

Beyond that, we custom installers are artisans, a concept that is becoming more and more important.  We are small, local, we look our client in the eye, we learn what is available to do what the client wants, and we are responsible for it.  We are indeed involved in personal aspects of our clients’ homes, interests, and desires.  These things can’t translate to large corporations, as the customers of the dogs of fire will attest.

These things surely cannot be met by an out of the box solution.  “Can you download speakers?”  Pithy and to the point!

Many of our dealer ask us why Jaton don’t exhibit
at CEDIA but only CES and RMAF audio show.
Thanks for you anwered the question for me. We’re
more focus on audiophile components now and
we’ll exhibit at CEDIA when we have more products
could fit in custom installation.

Wow!  Cool stuff… Yes i will take one on the chin for rhetoric and I deserve that.  Must be all my AGITPROP training for years at Microsoft .  But brass tax, something is happening and that is evident in the passions on both sides of the equation.  PC’s run ATM’s, brokerage workstations, medical equipment that is used in Pre Op, Op and Post Op, monitoring systems for Nuke reactors, Space craft and weaponry. They have all sorts of OS’s and many, many peripherals, analog, digital and mechanical. So the argument that they are not positioned to close a vent, route an IP stream (carrying any protocol with any digital payload, regardless of size, QOS or destination - aka to or from outer space) or perform automation and assistive duties, let alone that they cannot be relied on is just ANGER and a gross NON SEQUITOR when used in an argument to explain change and transition in an industry.  Now back to temper my own passions (as that makes me a target).  The transition MUST occur.  I watched it happen with Telco in corporate America (telcom people now play second fiddle to IT/Data and or they have been eliminated all together), and with Market data feeds (displays are all digital now) on Wall street.  It WILL happen in the Cedia realm/domain.  And for all you folks that continue to buy RAW materials from China to make cable and other antiquated electronics at high margins and $$$ additions to our national trade balance and DEBT, I say PLEASE CONSIDER A RETOOL and concentrate on configuration, setup and value added services like system monitoring, organizing and archiving content, concierge, remote assistance, resource/asset tracking, help desk, training and other IT like services to add value to what you set up in this industry.  stop focusing only on delivery of hard assets, custom build out, rack, cables, wall mounts and etc…  That is my push… Retool now and have a business based on value, relationship and ongoing services that you can pass on to your sons/daughters and grand children vs. holding onto the buggy whip and carriage industry that we are in now…  So, mea culpa for the preaching, but my heart and vision are in the right place and for a good cause .  Oh, and BTW, I am not taking just about software, I am taking about coupling of hardware and software and focus on solutions and services….  So peace to ya all and best wishes re alignment and retooling

A wise man once said “it is better to keep your mouth shut and let them think you a fool then to open it and prove them correct.”

POSTED BY RAY:  <<<<>>>>

Not one of those devices you mention run on a standard PC as you are advocating.  Further, what exactly do you think runs our current systems?  Toothpicks and duct tape?  No!  Its computers of all shapes and sizes.  Just not the type of off the shelf PC you are describing.  In fact, the ‘computers’ that run the systems I do are the exact same that run most of the military command centers around the world and ironically enough thousands of Microsoft conference rooms around the world.  I wonder why Microsoft didn’t use a PC to operate each boardroom?

EJFIII - thanks for exposing 2 things, your anger and that you do not check facts…  google can address the latter, perhaps a computer based, IVR program modeled on sound congnitive behavoral correction technicues can help you with the former…  Also try EMDR…but that will cost a lot more…

Oh and finally to EJFII, my quote back to you is not a veiled insult as yours was, it is prescriptive and right from a page about syllogistic logic, “you cannot win an argument by attacking someone, that is illogical”.  You traumatized Creston hardware junkies cannot win over an industry by attacking PC’s. Oh, and BTW, operations/facilities people and builders/building management people install the “superior military” board room systems as they don’t know any better.  We users in the trenches have simple PC’s when we present our winning and effective strategies, not your complex, expensive, non intuitive black box solutions that conjure up memories of the $10,000 dollar toilet seats of military legend… Now that is a factual and appropriate premise for my conclusion/attack on your proposed “solution” for board rooms.  Add value, do the right thing for consumers AND OUR COUNTRY and stop spreading your own trauma driven FUD…  Thanks… and Gods bless ya…

“Why are manufacturers using the Denver event to debut self-installable direct-to-consumer electronics?”  Good question:  Because many of the products sold to consumers through CEDIA members do not require professional installation.  I would define Custom as a set of solutions to a clients particular needs.  Using that definition, manufacturers feel that members can benefit from knowing about products that can be part of the solution.

Patrick, well said. Integrators need to know ALL of their options and pick what’s best for their customers. Just because it’s easy to install—or sold directly to consumers—doesn’t mean it’s wrong for your customer.

You might have to re-examine your business model to incorporate DIY products into your repertoire, but the IT industry figured that out a long time ago.

Terence Mulholland since we are name calling… I can only hope that you are healthy, happy fit and loved…  Otherwise your logic sucks but that is ok also…  been there done that.  I thought MIPS RISC and STRONG ARM chips would take over the world, so what do i know.  Sorry you are choking so hard on my foresight (and I am not alone, but apparently the only “fool to open my mouth”.)  Guess that is like saying the emperor has not clothes… Shame on me.  Regardless, Peace brother and oh, I think global warming is a phase…  I think Cedia going the way of dinosaurs is a phase also… one which will result in HIGHLY SPECIALIZED, EXPENSIVE black boxes being replaced by cheap off the shelf PC’s and StrongARM based phones and software.. Sorry that that vision offends you so much.  Do the right thing brother… Get modern like us “rats” (figure I would insult myself to preempt you and thus save your ticker from the stress of getting all fired up again…)

Ladies and gentleman, seize the day.  Make money now, install very profitable simple and easy to use systems that work, put smiles on faces and repeat the process. Clients hate call backs. Yes anticipate the future and review it quarterly against your strat plan.  Holes still need to be cut, consumers need help (I was just at Apples Genius bar paying for help, normal cost was only $100 but iI had to go o a meeting and was faced with a 50 min wait, I ask can I pay $300 for help now?  I had a manager pull me aside and ask what I needed I said three new macpro’s and need to transfer data in 40 min because I have a legal appointment I cant miss, guess what they serviced me immediately-that was strategic process) The legal appointment is $500 an hour so I came out on top.  Market aggressively and out learn the clients and their needs today.  Prices will fall, products will change but, you are the Dr. in the system now.  Hell I am part owner of big company in this industry and I am not scared.  We are not as rich as our clients…check this out from wikipdia- There is a wide disparity in the estimates of the number of millionaires residing currently in the United States. According to TNS Financial Services, as reported by CNN money, 8.9 million households in the US alone had a net worth of at least $1 million excluding primary residences in 2005. According to TNS, the number of millionaire US households is now 9.3 million, with an increase of half a million since 2005.  Millionaire households thus constituted roughly seven percent of all American households (20000 legit custom installers-talk about an untapped market). The study also found that half of all millionaire households in the US were headed by retirees (older folks than need your help, big screens and louder sound with better accuracy). Another finding was a record “33 percent increase over the 6.2 million households that met that criteria in 2003,” fueled largely by the country’s real estate boom.  I will reinvent to protect myself and family.  As good manufacturers we should always invest heavily in new technology for consumers to buy from us for you to install.  Example the new CEDIA and Electronic house best new technology award winning SpeakerCraft ERS iPhone interface, you can buy cheep downloadable programs for a few bucks on the apple site.  They are different, our system is $1000 retail because it allows YOU to make the consumers life easier.  Pick a niche and rule it today.  Pay yourself first, save and invest in the future.  It is not doom and gloom, start selling service contracts that yoke your clients to you forever, prices will drop and technology will become more simple but our niche still needs hand holding because they don’t want to deal with it.  I have made a few dollars but, I am frugal…Do I go to the nursery…yes after the landscape architect tells me what I need, I look at flowers, sego palms and trees and think ok looks good, thank god I don’t have to get a truck and get this home.  I still buy the plants from the landscape architect and he puts them in and charges to dig, fertalize the hole and water them.  If our system of capitalism continues to work the rich will get richer and less involved in technology and your offerings will increase in terms of service and sales.  Find ways to include mass market items in their systems to make their lives easier but always sell step up products.  Sorry for the run on of thoughts but it was stream of consciousness, maybe I am totally off base.  if I am i will reinvent abandon old for new ways and still dominate.  I wish you all good luck and please continue to reinvent, come to free SpeakerCraft business training we talk this stuff for hours.  Jason, nice article, the jist is the large Asian and some US vendors don’t get our market segment.

I didn’t call you any names Ray. I meant this as a cordial banter between intelligent people. However, you have yet to address any of the points I raised. What you’re missing is that I agreed with you on some points but think that you have little understanding of CEDIA and or the companies that comprise it’s members.

I believe the day of PC based products is coming but show me one such product, today, with reliability approaching mission critical type standards - one that addresses, or indeed replaces, the needs of our clients. I’ve yet to see it.

And if your answer is Lifeware I shall need a change of underwear.

Ah now look what you’ve gone and done Ray you got Jeremy mad.