Is the Blu-ray HD DVD Format War Over?

For the past few weeks, reports have been flying around the Internet claiming that the format war is nearly over, thanks to new sales figures, dual-format players, and the involvement of the biggest of the big-box retailers.

Samsung started the news with the announcement of their Duo HD player, a welcome addition to the HD DVD camp, according to Toshiba.

"We welcome Samsung's announcement of a player that supports HD DVD, who launched only Blu-ray players so far," according to a Toshiba spokesperson. "We understand this reflects Samsung's positive evaluation on HD DVD's advantages, particularly interactivity and internet connectivity. We are pleased that understanding of HD DVD's advantages is increasing."

On April 17, the HD DVD camp announced that 100,000 stand alone HD DVD players had been sold in the U.S., "ahead of any other high definition format." The group obviously wasn't counting the number of PlayStation 3 consoles sold, but the 100k figure does not include sales of the Xbox 360's external HD DVD drive, according to the official release.

When Video Business reported that sales of Blu-ray discs outpaced HD DVD in March, Sony took the opportunity to trumpet the format's success.

"We think retailers will start to dedicate more space to Blu-ray, rather than split it half and half," Sony worldwide president David Bishop said. "That will further send a signal to consumers that it is the dominant format."

Of course, this isn't the first time the Blu-ray camp has said that the format war is basically over. At CES, their press materials claimed "Blu-ray Victory Inevitable."

The Wal-Mart Angle

Then came Wal-Mart.

Reports of cheap Chinese HD DVD players hitting the shelves at Wal-Mart had one columnist suggesting that "Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner." Well, maybe.

While I'm not discounting the effect that Wal-Mart has on today's marketplace, the idea that they would create an entirely new line of product just to get people in the door to buy other equipment, as Rob Enderle argues, seems a stretch.

Wal-Mart sees the new high definition formats as a way to bring in store traffic again but they realized that won't happen unless the players are affordable and there is only one standard. They recognized their own power in being king maker previously and are now using that power to drive the format that works best for them. They could care less about the technology as this is all about making money and they (like every other retailer in this space) know that two formats won't allow the market to move outside of the fringes and the dual-mode players are simply way too expensive.

Call me out on this if you disagree, but given that the high-definition formats are relatively new -- and consumers aren't lining up to buy them -- why would Wal-Mart offer them as a way to "build store traffic" to sell other things? Add to the fact that the price of these players -- $299 is the reported cost -- is barely beneath Amazon.com's $329 price for Toshiba's HD-A2 player.

The HD DVD camp hasn't confirmed this deal, according to Engadget HD, which means it is either under discussion or not true. We'll find out soon enough, hopefully.

First Quarter Sales

The sales figures continue to favor Blu-ray as, according to Home Media Magazine, first quarter sales broke down with a 70/30 split in favor of BD.

Between Jan. 1 and March 31, consumers bought nearly 1.2 million high-definition discs, 832,530 Blu-ray units and 359,300 HD DVDs, according to Home Media Magazine market research. Since inception (HD DVD launched in mid-April 2006, while Blu-ray got rolling two months later, in late June), more than 2.14 million high-definition discs have been purchased by consumers -- 1.2 million Blu-ray Discs and about 937,500 HD DVDs.

The HD DVD folks admit that the numbers will probably continue to favor Blu-ray, at least until the fourth quarter, according to Universal. "Fourth quarter is really going to be a telling time," Ken Graffeo, VP marketing for Universal, told Video Business.

The HD DVD camp will be the first to publish the Matrix Trilogy in May, making the movie that arguably tipped DVD adoption available in high-def. The Blu-ray version will be available later this year.

So is the Format War Any Closer to Ending?

No. It's a simple answer.

Despite all of the news, reports and sales figures, there has been nothing that has significantly changed adoption of either format. It doesn't seem that we're any closer to concluding this battle.

What do you think?