How Long Should LED Bulbs Last?
The document, entitled Projecting Long Term Lumen Maintenance of LED Light Sources (TM-21-11), is based on procedures found in the Society's Approved Method for Measuring Lumen Maintenance of LED Light Sources document (LM-80-08).
According to the IES, "LED light sources provide a very long usable life but light output gradually depreciates over time. TM-21-11 provides the method for determining when the 'useful lifetime' of an LED is reached, a point when the light emitted from an LED depreciates to a level where it is no longer considered adequate for a specific application. Lumen maintenance of LEDs can vary from manufacturer to manufacturer and between different LED package types produced by a single manufacturer."
In other words, there are lots of variables. It's another piece of information for integrators to use when selling lighting control.
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5 Comments (displayed in order by date/time)
...As is the case with CFL bulbs
I just had a Pharox LED died after less than two years in use for maybe 2-4 hours use per day and many days with lots of light it would be even less.
The site claimed the would last 20 or 25 years but this was not the case with this bulb, it was however under three year warranty.
The company at first asked me to return ship it from Canada at my cost which I disagreed with. After posting a Youtube video of the defective bulb it wad within 1 hour someone from the company offered to ship me a new bulb.
You just can’t win. Incandescents use too much juice and get too hot. CCFLs contain mercury and are made under questionable QC parameters abroad. LEDs are also made without strict adherence to manufacturing and materials specifications. I have had better luck with CCFLs outlasting LEDs, however.
I agree with Bill. The related drive devices will fail from heat long before the light emitting diode junction does.



Long, long before the theoretical LED light output becomes a factor, the quality of manufacturing and power supply design will kill your expensive LED bulb. I have been using various LED bulbs for a couple years and the only environmentally redeeming quality they have is that you are not putting hazardous materials in the landfill when you throw them in the garbage.