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DisplaySearch Increases 2009 LCD Shipment Forecast to 130M
Attributes increased growth to a strong second quarter and falling prices.
DisplaySearch, due to strong second quarters in China and North America and falling prices, has increased its global LCD TV shipment forecast from 127 million units to 130 million units. The new forecast represents annual growth of 24 percent.
The falling prices of LCDs, of course, have a negative impact on profit margins, which is why DisplaySearch is still forecasting a revenue decline in 2009. That decline, however, has been reduced from 6 percent to 3 percent due to the increase in expected shipments.
"The 2009 holiday season will be a critical measure of how confident consumers are with the economic recovery, and how far brands and retailers are willing to go in order to drive store traffic," says Paul Gagnon, director of North America TV research for DisplaySearch.
"We expect unit shipments to outpace the weak results from a year ago, but it will take aggressive promotional prices from major brands and retailers alike to bring consumers into stores, especially for larger screen sizes, something that is even more challenging considering key costs have drifted higher in recent months."
The forecast for LCD TV shipments in North America has been increased from 31 million units to 34 million, with increased volume coming from screens smaller than 40-inches. Shipment volume of TVs smaller than 40-inches is expected to grow 23 percent in 2009, which is similar to 2008 growth. The large-screen TV market (40-inches-plus) is expected to grow 25 percent in 2009, which is about half the pace of 2008 growth.
"This is a clear result of the lower spending power by consumers worldwide in this recession, pushing them to look at more modest screen sizes when choosing a new LCD TV," says Gagnon. "However, we think this is a temporary effect. As the world emerges from the recession in 2010 and beyond, growth rates for large screen sizes will again outpace smaller sizes by a more substantial margin."
According to DisplaySearch, LCD TVs with 100/120 Hz frame rates will account for 31 percent of worldwide LCD TV revenues, while 200/240 Hz models will account for 5 percent. By 2013, DisplaySearch says, 100/120 Hz will account for 32 percent of LCD TV revenues, while 200/240 Hz will account for nearly 22 percent.
The falling prices of LCDs, of course, have a negative impact on profit margins, which is why DisplaySearch is still forecasting a revenue decline in 2009. That decline, however, has been reduced from 6 percent to 3 percent due to the increase in expected shipments.
"The 2009 holiday season will be a critical measure of how confident consumers are with the economic recovery, and how far brands and retailers are willing to go in order to drive store traffic," says Paul Gagnon, director of North America TV research for DisplaySearch.
"We expect unit shipments to outpace the weak results from a year ago, but it will take aggressive promotional prices from major brands and retailers alike to bring consumers into stores, especially for larger screen sizes, something that is even more challenging considering key costs have drifted higher in recent months."
The forecast for LCD TV shipments in North America has been increased from 31 million units to 34 million, with increased volume coming from screens smaller than 40-inches. Shipment volume of TVs smaller than 40-inches is expected to grow 23 percent in 2009, which is similar to 2008 growth. The large-screen TV market (40-inches-plus) is expected to grow 25 percent in 2009, which is about half the pace of 2008 growth.
"This is a clear result of the lower spending power by consumers worldwide in this recession, pushing them to look at more modest screen sizes when choosing a new LCD TV," says Gagnon. "However, we think this is a temporary effect. As the world emerges from the recession in 2010 and beyond, growth rates for large screen sizes will again outpace smaller sizes by a more substantial margin."
According to DisplaySearch, LCD TVs with 100/120 Hz frame rates will account for 31 percent of worldwide LCD TV revenues, while 200/240 Hz models will account for 5 percent. By 2013, DisplaySearch says, 100/120 Hz will account for 32 percent of LCD TV revenues, while 200/240 Hz will account for nearly 22 percent.
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About the Author
Steve Crowe, Web Editor
Steve is an editor for cepro.com. He graduated from Emerson College with a B.A. in Journalism. He joined the CE Pro staff in 2008. Steve is also a freelance sports writer for The Boston Globe and other various publications.
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