Blu-ray: HD DVD Can’t Prevail Without Studio Support

For the Blu-ray camp, it's all about content. At their CES press conference, they brought out studio heads to discuss the 2007 lineup of Blu-ray movies and tout the content they already have.

I interviewed Andy Parsons, promotion chair of the Blu-ray Disc Association and senior vice president of Pioneer, and Bill Sheppard, senior industry manager for Digital TV at Sun Microsystems, who were interested in talking about what the format has accomplished so far and the studio backing.

"We're just really trying to highlight the industry support," said Parsons.

Blu-ray is backed by Sony, Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, MGM and Buena Vista -- HD DVD is supported by Universal and segments of the porn industry. Warner Bros. is supporting both formats.

"Nobody buys my company's player because it goes well with the furniture -- they buy it because it's a gateway to [content]," Parsons said. "You're going to tell someone that they can't watch Disney movies and Fox movies on an HD DVD player?"

Parsons and Sheppard said that the lower price point for HD DVD players isn't a hindrance for Blu-ray adoption, and questioned whether Toshiba has a feasible business model when players are sold at a loss.

"It's cheap, but maybe it's cheap for a reason," said Parsons. "If someone wants to spend $499 on a player, they should get a PS3."

At the association's press conference, they announced survey results showing that 82 percent of PlayStation 3 (PS3) owners were more likely to buy Blu-ray movies than they originally thought -- despite Blu-ray laser diode production causing launch problems for the system. "The fact that it is a game console doesn't affect Blu-ray negatively," said Parsons.

The announcement from the HD DVD Promotion Group of the "feasibility" of 51 GB discs doesn't mean much, said Parsons, who pointed out that talk of a 45 GB disc has been around for awhile, but so far is "vaporware." On the other hand, he argues, the Blu-ray camp has already put out 50 GB discs. "We did it -- it works," said Parsons.

Parsons also defended the association's decision not to make manufacturers include Ethernet ports on Blu-ray players as standard. "By forcing manufacturers to include that, [their costs] go up," he said. "It's a choice."

An Ethernet connection is needed to access some of the functionality of BD-Live, which allows users to download content over the Internet and the ability for content providers to interact directly with the consumer. "I can guarantee you some people will not want to use it," he said.

LG's announcement of their Super Multi Blue player, the dual-format Blu-ray and HD DVD system, won't do much to solve the format war, said Parsons. "I don't think it's really solving that problem," he said, harkening to Pioneer's DVD-Audio/SACD player, which didn't do much to end that format war.

"Most studios would agree that they want one format," said Parsons. "Unless [Toshiba] can attract more studios to support their product, I don't see how they can prevail," he said. "They're basically standing alone on this."

A wild card in the studio support has come from the porn industry, with former Blu-ray backer Digital Playground announcing that their first four high-def titles would be available on HD DVD. "We're not trying to alienate anyone, but we're focusing on the mainstream," said Parsons.

But in the end, said Parsons, it's a numbers game, and the association's projections show that Blu-ray players will far outnumber HD DVD's market share. "How big is the population of players?"