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10 Reasons 3D Will Succeed
I was a little surprised to see such a forward-looking A/V news source predicting such blasphemy. It's been a long time since a tech trend has generated as much buzz as 3D, and theater hits like "Avatar" and "Alice In Wonderland" have heightened consumer interest in 3D.
Here are my counter points as to why 3D TV will find an important niche in the home theater experience.
Glasses - Consumers have shown they'll don 3D glasses in large public venues (i.e. theaters and theme parks). Why wouldn't they do so in the privacy of their own home. Glasses are also a stop-gap as auto-stereoscopic technologies develop and the associated price tag softens.
TV Watching is Social - While 3D viewing may alter the social atmosphere, it also heightens immersion. The times 3D will be most interesting are the times you're so immersed in the content that you won't want to talk to the person next to you. It's not for the news, SportsCenter, or AMC.
Compatibility - Nearly every major upgrade in home theater content has had associated hardware upgrades. Dolby Digital? DVD? HDTV? Blu-ray? All required new hardware to varying degrees. Some early adopters will abandon perfectly good equipment for the latest and greatest, while others upgrade through attrition. It's all happened before and will happen again.
Lack of Content - Hardware and software are like the chicken and the egg. But in the A/V world, hardware almost always comes first and languishes a bit until some killer app (like "The Matrix" on DVD) pushes people to invest. Once the seal is broken, the trickle gains momentum and becomes a flood.
Confusion - The launch of HDTV in the U.S. caused more consumer confusion than any other technology roll-out of all time. While HDTV was slow to ramp-up and had a big government push behind it, it's a success regardless of the confusion, and not every Joe Six Pack even saw the benefit of HDTV's resolution, aspect ratio, and digital video/sound. It's hard for anyone to say they physically don't see what 3D offers.
Health Risks - It's true that some people can't see stereoscopic 3D effects. Another small minority can experience some discomfort or eye strain from extended viewing. The percentages of people affected by both categories vary wildly based on who you ask. Some warnings have been issued by electronics manufacturers, but you can find similar warnings for everything from cell phones to supermarket plastic bags. Until there is some substantial evidence to actual risks, these kinds of allegations are best left to Fox News.
Unwatchable 3D Footage - 3D content can easily be viewed in 2D. While it's an either-or proposition (either everyone watches 3D or 2D), displays and content devices offer the ability to "flatten" 3D content to 2D. Since the 3D effect is generated by separate 2D images for each eye, showing only the left or right image effectively renders 3D content in 2D.
Just Good-enough Syndrome - While HDTV content and Blu-ray content haven't replaced SD or DVD as de facto standards, saying they haven't "taken off" is disingenuous at best. 3D isn't meant to replace 2D, but augment it. Every major new technology has early adopters and those who hold back. 3D won't be any different, but that doesn't mean it will fail. DVD didn't, surround sound didn't, HDTV didn't, and 3D won't.
Discs are Dying - While 3D can require more storage space or bandwidth, it's not reliant on a physical medium much, if any, more than HD video.
History Lessons - While the term "HDTV" may have been around 20 years before it reached market saturation, the digital HDTV broadcast in the U.S. occurred in the summer of 1996, and the ATSC standard wasn't finalized until the fall of 1998. By 2001, HDTVs were becoming common place in big-box retailers. Twenty years is a huge stretch. Consumers have a short memory, and far more people are likely to remember their 3D theater experience and become interested in replicating it in their home (unless they see "Clash of the Titans").
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12 Comments (displayed in order by date/time)
3-D is being forced down our throats without regard to cost or benefit. The manufacturers and retailers behind it are looking for any cure to their own economic woes, right or wrong. (Reminds me of a little known health care reform bill.) Once universal standards are accepted by all companies and we can enjoy it without those ridiculous glasses, 3-D can become just another part of our lives that few love, few hate and many simply take for granted. It will be tons of fun when it’s ready for public consumption.
Let’s also not forget that the industry still hasn’t perfected the HD 2D format… Between HDMI incompatibility issues from component to component, refresh rates on LCD & LED TV’s, and lastly broadcasters who’s HDTV standard is still 720p, why would you throw 3D into the mix?
You have to crawl before you can walk, you have to walk before you can run, and you have to run before you can fly… These are the simple rules of nature. 3D manufacturers are trying to fly while they’re still crawling.
The least expensive method of getting 3D onto existing 2D displays, is by having your kids run back & forth in front of your TV while you’re trying to watch your favorite program. 
I have seen multiple different versions of 3D at a CES and several vendor meetings and I am not impressed. It might be cool at the theater, but not at home.
This seems more like the industry trying to build excitement and force 3D on everyone. The technology is not ready and there are no consistent standards!
I don’t know about health risks, but I have seen a number of people come out of demos feeling uncomfotable and have heard from a number of people that they can’t watch for more than 2 hours.
Also what about families? Are they suppossed to shell out hundreds of dollars for glasses & keep track of them? What about when friends come over? “Hey it’s BYO Glasses, but make sure they are compatible with XYZ!”
It’s a fad!!!
Yeah, I gotta go with eCoustic on this one. Their points—-Debby Downer as it sounds—-are realistic ones; yours just don’t jibe with anyone I know or have sold to.
Your “Discs Are Dying” point is also specious until bandwidth limitations in this country are vastly overhauled. I’d much rather watch a feature film via disc (with little to no compression issues vs. a square-shaped signal being forced into a small round pipe) any day, hands down. I think anyone even remotely concerned with picture quality would, too.
I stopped reading at “... these kinds of allegations are best left to Fox News.”
Why do you have to spew political garbage that’s irrelevant to this article? You can’t just write an article on the substance and leave it at that? By doing so, you’ve lost all credibility.
Im with AY on this one. Will avoid Steven Kool Aid Drinking Hopkins articles in the future. And tune into Fox to watch his demise.
The Panasonic 3D capable VT series plasmas are, by way of compliance for 3D, spectacular in their 2D performance.
3D will find its comfort zone which will translate into market-earned dollars.
Why so negative? Integrators can set it up for the kids’ playroom for their amusement and gaming participation. You’ll know soon enough if ma and pa are diggin’ it.
If they then wish to upgrade in their viewing space, what will you tell them?
Michael,
I would tell them that it costs $$$ to replace the glasses the kids have either lost, scratched, or stepped on. Then I would tell the kids the old story of how we used to walk up hill 10 miles in the snow both ways to school when we were kids, (thanks Bill Cosby), and they’re lucky enough to have a 2D TV of their own to play games on.
Lastly, regarding all of the heath warnings regarding 3D, I’d feel safer giving my kids a set of, “Lawn Darts,” and tell them to get up off their asses and go outside and play instead of encouraging them from sitting in front of the tube for entertainment.
What ever happened to kids playing, “ring and run,” with their neighbors’ doorbells, or building model airplanes with M-80’s in the wings for good ‘ol wholesome fun? I’ve got to run… Wally & the Beaver are up to something.
Steve, Don’t listen to the Nay sayers, there will always be someone left on the shore to wave goodbye to the people leaving on the boat !
They DON’T understand something and like most humans, they fear what they don’t know !
Anochranistic “scaredy cats” who would rather bury their collective heads in the sand, than attempt to embrace a new technology.
“I can’t learn something NEW” !
I have only conversed with a handful of people in the United States who even have a rudimentary grasp of 3D technology.
You can’t competently argue a point if you don’t understand the technology.
People who won’t adopt the new 3D, to you I say:
“Stop providing the world with evidence of your stupidity by writing about something you know NOTHING of !”
Scott,
Please do us all a favor and order every 3D piece of hardware available so manufacturers won’t lose any money trying to selling a premature format to the rest of us.
I never said 3D was perfect for everyone or that all current 3D technology is either.
But give it a chance (in its new form - not from 1990 or whenever you were relevant)at I beleive you will come ‘round.
You say you’re open minded (sighted) but yet you quip back with your unsupported opnions !
Do you know what a fact is ?
Stephen,
Your comments are nothing more than trying to bail out the Titanic with a shot glass.