10 Reasons 3D Might Fail

Brian,
I couldn’t agree with you more!!!

My position has always been that we just got done dragging the public kicking and screaming into purchasing HD flat panel TV’s, Blu Ray players, and then telling them they had to pay for additional cable & Sat HD programming in order to use their new equipment. Even now not everyone is on board yet but we’re getting there.

Now all of a sudden, we’re telling these same people that their investment is obsolete if they want 3D. IMO, 3D is nothing more than a desperate attempt to bring our struggling industry back to it’s old economic feet. I strongly feel this format is doing more harm than good to promote new sales.

I absolutely agree.

We spent 50 years perfecting the cathode ray - NTSC TV. We now have 52” LCD & LED TV’s that have inferior performance (artifacting, contrast ratio, etc) relative to HDTV capability. Why aren’t the manufacturers focusing on improving the performance instead of selling “gimicks” like 3D that just complicate everything?

Don’t get me wrong, I think 3D has its place, but that place is in a dedicated Home Theater with a really big screen and a projector. Not on a 46” flat panel in my living room. 

I also agree… While it might be a bit of a boon for our business, and would make for fun showroom demos, I think it’ll be a flash in the pan.

I ‘m thinking it could however be more of a standard deal with the hard-core gamers, being that is a less social experience.

Would I go 3D? mmmmm, not in the near future.

No argument here! 

Agreed on all counts. Our industry should be focusing on better video and audio performance for our clients’ everyday viewing, not gimmicks like 3D that will confuse most and annoy many.

I am not so sure 3D will disappear, or fail completely.

I do see some excitement on the subject, especially on the gaming end of the spectrum.  I see parents buying 3D for their kids X-Box, Playstation, etc.  It will inevitably end up being used for some film content here and there, especially if the game room is set up for family friendly TV.

If people bring it in the home for gaming, they will adopt some TV watching in 3D by default, as it will be available on a few channels as well as in BD format.

As for a major market opportunity, I don’t see people going out of their way to purchase it for other reasons.  You will have the Fear Factor in play that will spur some to buy the 3D ready sets, with the option to get the glasses and the syncing emitter at a later date, unless of course “Fear is definitely not a factor for you.”  (Whatever happened to that show?)

A rapid adoption by gamers and early adopters, a slow infusion by those hedging their bets, and a transition of 3D or 3D ready as a standard feature in the electronics we buy mean that 3D will find a home in the market, but may not achieve world domination any time soon.

As integrators we need to make sure everyone understands this reality, as well as the multiple concerns that exist behind people that are or may be physiologically incompatible to begin with.

Just my take.

Mark

I agree on some points and disagree on others. I think it is great to show and have a little demo wow factor.  It’s relatively inexpensive compared to some other product rollouts I’ve seen and we installers have been burned so many times on new technology (SACD, HD-DVD, Blu-Ray, Plasmas, DLP come to mind) By all accounts people love 3-D.  The proof is in the lines I see on the weekends at our local digital cinema.  We have set up a 50-inch 3-D setup at our cash register and people seem to dig it. When they find out it isn’t super expensive nor full-time 3-D (backwards compatible) they become more receptive.  Does the experience translate well into the smalller enviroments like your normal 60-65 inch Plasma or LCD home environment like it does in a commercial theater?  Certainly not!  But it is a value-added optional feature for the consumer.  Putting on the glasses for a couple of hours is going to be OK for most end-users.  Standardizing and cross-compatability is once again in short supply bringing back a format war across platforms. Also getting it into larger home theaters with projection systems is seeming to be cost prohibitive and the dust has not settled in that department between screen material, projection systems, glasses, etc.  In the end I thought it would be a great way to save commercial cinemas, but since Pandora (3-D)  is out of the box we, as installers, will probably have to embrace it, sell it and take responsibility for early-adoption hardware selection which we do on behalf of our customers everytime a new technology comes out. Either way a customer will always say you undersold or oversold them (based on cost, technology or other factors) about every three years when significant technology leaps are made. This is something we will always deal with.

Brian:

I agree with most of what you say, but I hang on to the hope that 3D succeeds. Here are some counterpoints.

Glasses – Most CE Pros are not just installing general TVs, they are installing home theaters that are dedicated to video games and watching movies. 3D video gaming on a big screen will be HUGE and glasses will not be a deterrent.  As it is gamers already wear headgear to communicate, so the option will be glasses with headset and mic built in. Also, there is fast-track development of glasses-free 3DTV by our tier 1 friends.

Lack of content/ Unwatchable 3D Footage – 3D video players and displays are also 2D compatible. They will only go to 3D mode when a 3D EDID is introduced by the content.

Discs are dying -  Who really thinks that Samsung, Sharp, Panasonic, LG etc. are going to roll over to Cisco? The 3D bandwidth requirement is CE manufacturers’ silver bullet for network hardware. Ease of access and decades of disc-to-human training will keep discs in play for a long time to come. In addition, copyright content protection will inhibit the progress of streaming video. We will still need a hardware codec, so I think we will see more hybrid devices with both streaming and disc content just as newer bluray players are now equipped with Netflix and Blockbuster.

Uh,  Ditto on the entire article.  It is too niche, and only enthusiasts with $$ and patience for new electronics will be the likely customer base (small base at that).
I am curious what manufacturers are thinking, considering that we are in hard economic times, there is a shift in the way people spend their money, and HDMI is still too problematic for me to get excited about asking it to do more than it can handle (or not handle in this case).

For me, 3D TV (and film for that matter) is simply is a far inferior experience in toto.

When compared to stellar 2D material, current 3D technology is soft, exhibits edge doubling (crosstalk), can appear less vibrant/colorful, is relatively fatiguing, etc.

When combined with the other points here, very limited content to even fuel the HW, its really a mess of launch.

Good article and I agree with it, I can see 3D games becoming popular but the majority of tv watchers couldn’t care less.
My 2D HDTV works great and I don’t intend on replacing it for many years.

I totally agree on the glasses.  Until we really have the ability to watch great 3D content without the expensive brand-specific glasses, I don’t think it’ll take off.

One of the niches for 3D programming is Sports.  I’m guessing there’s plenty of folks around the US (like myself)who host 10 - 15 friends for Super Bowl parties every year. Right now we can all sit down/eat/socialize and watch the game on an HDTV.  However, I’m not sure how many party hosts are going to be willing to invest in 15 pairs of 3D glasses - especially when you may need only 4 for your family’s regular use the other 364 days of the year.

“3D viewing abruptly alters the social nature of TV watching.” 

This is something I hadn’t really considered, but makes absolute sense.  You can’t do anything except watch TV while you’re watching TV.  When’s the last time you JUST watched TV?  Didn’t get a phone call or text, or were checking your email?

But, this plays right into gaming.  When you’re playing video games, you CAN’T be doing anything else!  Instead of picking up the controller, you’ll be picking up the controller and the glasses.

The question is, how much of a market is there for that?  More specifically, how many people are going to put money into it to get the benefit if it’s ONLY for gaming?

HDTV took 20+ years because the CE industry wanted it to take that long to get their investments out of the old SD junk.

3D done right is an amazing experience for certain types of content (sports, games, sex, action films) and that content will only grow with time.

Custom Glasses will be available soon to enhance the experience.

The fact that the content requires more bandwidth will serve to keep discs alive that much longer.

3D isn’t going to fail at this point.

Not failing is far from the same thing as succeeding, much less thriving. Gaming and backwards compatibility (not to mention manufacturers’ egos because they’ve already hyped it) will probably keep it alive at some level, but for reasons already stated here by others I have serious doubts it is likely to go mainstream, particulalry as long as glasses are required.

I just came from the NAB show here in Vegas. If 3D is going to fail, someone should have told the manufacturers. I just saw hundreds of millions of dollars of gear for 3D. 25’ 3D LED displays, active glasses, passive glasses, live video, etc.

Will 3D fail? Sure it will but not until the investors got their money back. Expect to see a lot of content, and even methods of adding 3D feel to standard content.