NAHB Forecast: Home Starts up 5% in 2018, Bolstered by ‘Political Climate’

NAHB forecasts single-family home starts will up 5% in 2018, thanks in part to ‘pro-business sentiment in Washington’, but MDU starts will fall.

NAHB Forecast: Home Starts up 5% in 2018, Bolstered by ‘Political Climate’

Single-family home starts will be up in 2018, according to NAHB research, but MDUs will be down.

Homebuilding is still on the rise, according to new data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The association expects single-family housing starts to rise another 5 percent in 2018 to 893,000 units; however, MDU starts will be down.

“There is a pro-business sentiment in Washington right now, and our builders hope to continue receiving relief from overly burdensome regulations,” says NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “This political climate is boosting their optimism in the housing market.”

“A return to normal levels of housing production this month is expected after a very strong fall season,” says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “We saw a surge of housing activity in the South after hurricane-related delays, and now that region is returning to its positive growth trend.”

NAHB is forecasting continued growth in housing production for 2018, led by ongoing single-family gains. Total housing starts are expected to grow 2.7 percent to 1.25 million units. Single-family production should increase 5 percent to 893,000 units while the multifamily sector is expected to edge 1.6 percent lower this year to 354,000.

“There is a pro-business sentiment in Washington right now.”

— Randy Noel, NAHB

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department revealed a slight dip in housing in December. Nationwide housing starts fell 8.2 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.19 million units after an upwardly revised November reading.

The December numbers show a return to trend after an especially strong November report, but overall 2017 saw significant gains in housing production. Starts rose 2.4 percent last year, pushed up by an 8.5 percent jump in the single-family sector. Multifamily starts dropped 9.8 percent.

Looking at the December 2017 report, single-family starts fell 11.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 836,000 units. However, the three-month moving average for single-family production reached a post-recession high. Meanwhile, multifamily starts ticked up 1.4 percent to 356,000 units.

Regionally in December, combined single- and multifamily housing production fell 0.9 percent in the West, 2.2 percent in the Midwest, 4.3 percent in the Northeast and 14.2 percent in the South.

Overall permit issuance in December was essentially flat, inching down 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.302 million units. Single-family permits rose 1.8 percent to 881,000 units while multifamily permits fell 3.9 percent to 421,000.

Permits rose 43 percent in the Northeast, 8.7 percent in the Midwest and 1.7 percent in the West. Permits declined 11.1 percent in the South, led by a drop on the multifamily front.

About the Author

Jason Knott
Jason Knott:

Jason Knott is Chief Content Officer for Emerald's Connected Brands. Jason has covered low-voltage electronics as an editor since 1990, serving as editor and publisher of Security Sales & Integration. He joined CE Pro in 2000 and serves as Editor-in-Chief of that brand. He served as chairman of the Security Industry Association’s Education Committee from 2000-2004 and sat on the board of that association from 1998-2002. He is also a former board member of the Alarm Industry Research and Educational Foundation. He has been a member of the CEDIA Business Working Group since 2010. Jason graduated from the University of Southern California.