Single-family homebuilding reversed a declining trend in November, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate coming in at 1.51 million, 6.4% above the corrected numbers for October. Permits, however, have not followed this growth pattern, suggesting that this segment is unlikely to see much more growth heading into the first quarter of the new year.Industry
Overall housing starts sagged 1.8% down to 1.289 million compared to October and now sit 14.6% lower than they did in November 2023. This decline was largely fueled by ongoing losses in the multifamily segment, which came in with an annual rate of 278,000, 23.2% lower than that of last year, according to data from the United States Census Bureau.
This uptick in single-family starts comes exclusively from the South, with economists largely attributing the activity to a rebound in storm-ravaged areas now making a recovery. Single-family construction was up 18.3% in the south with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000, while the Northeast, Midwest, and West were down 23.3%, 3.6%, and 7%, respectively.
Permits Reflect Souring Outlook on Homebuilding Market
Single-family permit authorizations were up a mere 0.1% in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 972,000, while overall permits were up 6.1% with multifamily permits leading the growth, increasing 19% to a rate of 533,000.
Economists weighing in on the situation, as well as home builders themselves, have pointed to several conditions creating market uncertainty in construction at large.

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Higher mortgage rates remain a considerable weakening factor in purchasing desire among prospective homebuyers. Despite the central bank having cut interest rate a full percentage point at this stage, mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, with the most recent interest rate cut seeing an upturn in mortgage rates due to the bank’s hawkish outlook on future rate cuts.
As of right now, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage sites at 6.72%, according to Freddie Mac.
Additionally, much uncertainty still exists in the market surrounding the many policies of the incoming administration. While home builders largely anticipate a lower regulatory burden, there are still concerns among many chiefly related to higher rates of inflation in certain areas of the market.
A proposed 25% tariff on all goods from Canada, for example, would greatly impact lumber prices as much of the lumber for U.S. housing stock is imported from Canada.
Additionally, there are concerns that the tighter immigration policies of the incoming administration could eat into the labor pool of construction firms, further weakening the capacity to meet market demands.
Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford economics puts the ratio of non-citizen workers in the construction industry at 18% of the total workforce.
Experts Expect Single-Family Starts to Continue to Struggle
Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. shared his insight into the news.
“While single-family starts were up in November, single-family permits were flat as builders face mixed market conditions that include an election result that promises a focus on regulatory relief, but ongoing elevated mortgage rates.”
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz weighed in on the matter with his own outlook.
“NAHB is forecasting single-family starts to post a slight increase in 2025 as the financing conditions for builders improve modestly. The significant decline for apartment construction is forecasted to end, with that market stabilizing during the second half of next year.”
While single-family permits rose 0.1% in November, that growth also largely came from the South, which had a 1.8% increase in permits being taken out while the Northeast and West declined. The Midwest did not change from the prior month.
During that time, the single-family homebuilding backlog rose 0.7% to 144,000 units, with the completions rate increasing 3.3% to 1.038 million units. Meanwhile the inventory of single-family houses currently under construction dropped 0.8% to a rate of 637,000 units, marking the lowest level since March of 2021.
Despite a dearth of existing homes for sale, single-family construction has been largely declined over the course of the year. This decline is largely reflected in the upcoming CE Pro State of the Industry report, as more integrators have shifted towards commercial work and smaller, custom builds in lieu of a stable supply of new build homes while business leaders point towards retrofits and renovations as being viable options to help offset the stagnation in the single family segment.
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