The Looming Ultra HD vs. OLED War
Yeah, another display technology war reminiscent of plasma vs. LCD (well not quite that drastic, more like smart TVs vs. 3D) that will lead consumers to migrate to informed integrators to educate them on the best solutions! (For its part, LG is playing both sides of the fence, having recently showed off both Ultra HD/4K and OLED.) Not too mention we are talking about high price points for both displays (for now).
Recent data from the NPD DisplaySearch outlines the predicted growth for both categories. According to its Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, the competition is heating up.
There will only be 500 OLED TV shipments in 2012, compared to 4,000 Ultra HD/4K units (as a feature set in LCDs). Victory for Ultra HD/4K. The same trend continues in 2013, when there will be 50,000 OLEDs sold and 154,000 Ultra HD/4K sets shipped. But NPD says by 2016, there will be 9 million OLEDs sold compared to just 5 million Ultra HD/4K sets. The primary market for both will be in the 50-inch-plus size.
In other words, Ultra HD/4K feature set will not be included in most OLEDs. It also means your clients will be asking: “Which should I buy?” It means integrators need to read up on the pros and cons of the two technologies helping clients analyze the super-thin, super-light OLEDs that can hang on a wall with a nail vs. the extreme clarity of Ultra HD/4K (in an LCD or in an OLED) that lacks a lot of content to watch currently.
In the long term, NPD notes that the TV replacement cycle for flat panels is just beginning to hit and will help the market.
Paul Gagnon, director, North American TV research at NPD DisplaySearch, says, “At the recent IFA Berlin tradeshow, the competition between 4K × 2K LCD TVs and OLED TVs was a hot topic. While the likelihood of a 2012 launch of OLED TVs seemed to evaporate when mass production was delayed until at least 2013, many companies demonstrated 4K × 2K resolution LCD TVs that were already beginning production.”
The NPD report also shows that worldwide demand for TVs has slowed, but shipments of 50-inch-and-larger sets in all categories are expected to rise 13 percent in 2013.
“Worldwide demand for TVs continues to face pressure from external factors, such as slowing economic growth, high unemployment rates, and the rising household penetration of flat panel TVs,” notes Gagnon. “At the same time, internal factors, such as slower cost reductions and a greater focus on profits at the expense of volume, are leading to a lower level of retail price erosion, which is also impacting demand.”