Economist: Strong Consumer Spending to Return in 2014

There's good news and bad news on the horizon, according to leading economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research who spoke at CEDIA Expo 2009 as part of the Niles Audio Business Dynamics Seminar.

Beaulieu says that while the U.S. economic recovery is underway, the recovery will be slow. He says the bottom of the trough, in terms of 5 leading economic indicators, will be February 2010, and there won't be a "re-dip" or double-dip recession.

The Institute for Trend Research says on its Web site that "we forecast economic indicators with 96% accuracy." Beaulieu made the following predictions:

• The economy will be slowly improving in 2010, but unemployment will remain high
• Credit will flow more freely, and inflation will be 3 percent by the end of the year
• The economy will be on the upswing in 2011, and inflation will spike to 6 percent and interest rates will rise dramatically
• Business and personal taxes will be increase in 2011 by the government
• 2012 will not be as strong as 2011
• 2013 will be flat
• The economy will finally soar in 2014, getting back to the same growth rates of 2007
• 2020 will be the year that the stock market finally returns to December 2007 levels

Beaulieu advises integrators use this time period to buy weak competitors, purchase real estate if you have the cash, invest in energy, medical, food, banks and construction equipment company stocks.

"This economic recovery is one of the most opportunistic times of your life," Beaulieu says. "You couldn't ask for a better time to remake yourself."