Blu-ray Adoption Won’t Happen Until 2009, Research Finds

A new report from Bernstein Research predicts that mass Blu-ray adoption won't start until the end of 2009, when players fall beneath $200.

The interest in upgrading to high-def players is only mild, and Blu-ray ownership won't hit 25 percent of US households until the end of 2011, as reported by Reuters/Hollywood Reporter.

But there is some good news for the home video market -- Bernstein Research analyst Michael Nathanson expects that Blu-ray sales will help revenues grow 2.4 percent compounded annually between 2007 and 2011.

Without Blu-ray discs, the market would be down 2.2 percent each year, Bernstein estimates.

Disc ownership is down among Blu-ray owners compared to first-time DVD owners, who owned nearly 30 titles at the same point in the adoption curve, according to the report. Blu-ray households own an average of three titles a piece.

According to recent research from Interpret, LLC, Blu-ray awareness has hit 60 percent, but hardware penetration is still low. The Reuters report argues that Sony's PlayStation 3, which has an embedded Blu-ray drive, isn't doing the job.

Plus, since the vast majority of Blu-ray players are in homes because Sony has embedded them into the PlayStation 3 video game consoles, many consumers don't seem to care that they even have a Blu-ray player.

With new titles coming from former HD DVD supporters like Universal, it'll be interesting to see what effect an increased library will have on Blu-ray adoption.

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