Economist: Strong Consumer Spending to Return in 2014

Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research also predicts an upswing in 2011, but relatively flat 2012 and 2013.

Sep
12

By Jason Knott
Filed in: News, Business Resources, CEDIA
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09.12.2009 — There's good news and bad news on the horizon, according to leading economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research who spoke at CEDIA Expo 2009 as part of the Niles Audio Business Dynamics Seminar.

Beaulieu says that while the U.S. economic recovery is underway, the recovery will be slow. He says the bottom of the trough, in terms of 5 leading economic indicators, will be February 2010, and there won't be a "re-dip" or double-dip recession.

The Institute for Trend Research says on its Web site that "we forecast economic indicators with 96% accuracy." Beaulieu made the following predictions:

The economy will be slowly improving in 2010, but unemployment will remain high
Credit will flow more freely, and inflation will be 3 percent by the end of the year
The economy will be on the upswing in 2011, and inflation will spike to 6 percent and interest rates will rise dramatically
Business and personal taxes will be increase in 2011 by the government
2012 will not be as strong as 2011
2013 will be flat
The economy will finally soar in 2014, getting back to the same growth rates of 2007
2020 will be the year that the stock market finally returns to December 2007 levels

Beaulieu advises integrators use this time period to buy weak competitors, purchase real estate if you have the cash, invest in energy, medical, food, banks and construction equipment company stocks.

"This economic recovery is one of the most opportunistic times of your life," Beaulieu says. "You couldn't ask for a better time to remake yourself."

Jason Knott, Editor, CE Pro

Jason has covered low-voltage electronics as an editor since 1990. He joined EH Publishing in 2000, and before that served as publisher and editor of Security Sales, a leading magazine for the security industry. He served as chairman of the Security Industry Association’s Education Committee from 2000-2004 and sat on the board of that association from 1998-2002. He is also a former board member of the Alarm Industry Research and Educational Foundation. Jason graduated from the University of Southern California.

Comments

Posted by David Haddad on 09/12 at 07:48 PM

“The Institute for Trend Research says on its Web site that “we forecast economic indicators with 96% accuracy.”

Well if they say it then it has to be true (sarcasm). As PT Barnum said…

Posted by phyre3 on 09/14 at 12:19 AM

So did they predict where we are now in 2009?

Posted by Sabine Stochastic on 09/14 at 11:57 AM

I still bring a jacket even when the weather man says sunny. How many times has that weatherman been right just by coincidence/accident? Come to think of it, have they ever been right? It seems like the weather happens, and they tell us what happened and guess whats coming next. If they are right, they take credit, if they are wrong, something changed that was going to happen anyways already.

Posted by Ausmo on 09/14 at 07:17 PM

Maybe at our store we are doing somethings a little different. “Our” store economy is strong and “returning” right now. So much so we have to now move to a larger retail store and have had to expand staff. I guess we represent the other 4% of that accuracy component. The difference is 100% mental attitude; not buying into the economic indicators and not being a victim of the economy. The pie is in fact infinitely large. So much so it does not even have to be divided up you just simply make it bigger developing one customer at a time. You can wait for 2014 if you want to but the business is out there now, right under your noses, if you truly want it.

Posted by David Haddad on 09/14 at 07:28 PM

phyre3 said: “So did they predict where we are now in 2009?”

My very first thought phyre! 2009 was probably part of their 4% inaccuracy . These guys remind me of psychics who claim to be able to see the future yet are having to con their way into money when if they could really see the future they would be worth billions (lottery tickets, stocks etc.). This company can predict the economy with 96% accuracy and what do they do - they make money by giving speeches at trade shows.